Time of issue: 0830 hours IST Dated: 27-11-2013
Bulletin No.: BOB07/2013/27
(Orange Message)
Sub: Very Severe Cyclonic storm ‘LEHAR’ over westcentral and adjoining south Bay of Bengal : Cyclone Warning for Andhra Pradesh coast
The very severe cyclonic storm ‘LEHAR’ over southeast and adjoining central Bay of Bengal moved west-northwestward with a speed of 15 kmph during past six hrs and lay centred at 0530 hours IST of today, the 27 November 2013 over the westcentral and adjoining south Bay of Bengal near latitude 13.50 N and longitude 87.00 E, about 650 km west-northwest of Port Blair, 700 km east-southeast of Machillipatnam, 640 km east-southeast of Kakinada and 620 km southeast of Kalingapatnam. The system would intensify further and move west-northwestwards and cross Andhra Pradesh coast near Machillipatnam around 28 November afternoon.
Track and intensity forecasts of the system are given in the table below:Date/Time(IST) | Position (Lat. 0N/ long. 0E) | Maximum sustained surface wind speed (kmph) | Category of cyclonic disturbance |
27-11-2013/0530 | 13.5/87.0 | 140-150 GUSTING TO 165 | VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM |
27-11-2013/1130 | 13.8/86.0 | 140-150 GUSTING TO 165 | VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM |
27-11-2013/1730 | 14.2/84.8 | 150-160 GUSTING TO 170 | VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM |
27-11-2013/2330 | 14.7/83.8 | 150-160 GUSTING TO 170 | VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM |
28-11-2013/0530 | 15.2/82.6 | 150-160 GUSTING TO 170 | VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM |
28-11-2013/1730 | 16.4/80.6 | 110-120 GUSTING TO 130 | SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM |
29-11-2013/0530 | 17.6/78.8 | 50-60 GUSTING TO 70 | DEEP DEPRESSION |
29-11-2013/1730 | 18.8/77.0 | 20-30 GUSTING TO 40 | LOW |
(A)Warning for coastal Andhra Pradesh and Odisha
(i)Heavy Rainfall:
Rainfall at many places would commence from 27thevening over coastal Andhra Pradesh; Yanam district of Puducherry and south coastal Odisha. Intensity would gradually increase with rainfall at most places with heavy to very heavy falls at a few places and isolated extremely heavy falls over coastal Andhra Pradesh and Yanam district of Puducherry on 28thNovember. Isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall would occur over coastal Andhra Pradesh and Telengana on 29thNovember 2013.
(ii)Gale wind:
Squally winds speed reaching 45-55 kmph gusting to 65 kmph would commence along and off Andhra Pradesh and south Odisha coasts from 27thevening. It would increase in intensity with gale wind speed reaching 150-160 kmph gusting to 170 kmph along and off coastal districts of Guntur, Krishna, west & east Godavari and Vishakhapatnam districts of Andhra Pradesh and Yanam district of Puducherry and 100-110 kmph gusting to 120 kmph over Vizianagaram and Prakasham districts of coastal Andhra Pradesh at the time of landfall. Squally winds speed reaching 55-65 kmph gusting to 75 kmph would prevail along and off remaining districts of Andhra Pradesh at the time of landfall.
(iii)State of sea:
State of Sea along and off Andhra Pradesh and south Odisha coast will be rough to very rough from 27thevening and will become phenomenal on 28thNovember along and off coastal Andhra Pradesh.
(iv)Storm Surge Guidance:
Storm surge of height about 2.0-3.0 metres above astronomical tide would inundate low lying areas of west and east Godavari, Guntur and Krishna districts of Andhra Pradesh and Yanam district of Puducherry and about 1 metre near Visakhapatnam district at the time of landfall.
(v)Damage expected over north coastal Andhra Pradesh:
Extensive damage to kutcha houses. Disruption of power and communication line. Disruption of rail and road traffic. Potential threat from flying debris. Flooding of escape routes. Extensive damage to agricultural crops.
(vi)Action suggested:
Total suspension of fishing operations. Fishermen out at sea along and off Andhra Pradesh and south Odisha coasts are advised to return to coast. Mobilise evacuation from coastal areas. Judicious regulation of rail and road traffic. People in affected areas to remain indoors.