India's first step towards climate solution is good, but it has miles to go on a complex road
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India's submission to the United Nations Framework for Climate Change could make anyone smile, which is quite an achievement for a report on reducing the calamitous effects of greenhouse gas emissions.
Submitted on October 2, it begins with the flowery touch of a winning school essay: "Human beings here [in India] have regarded fauna and flora as part of their family," and "represent a culture that calls the planet Mother Earth". It quotes from the Yajur Veda, references yoga, calls Mahatma Gandhi the earliest climate change philoso- pher, and claims the "harmonious co-existence of man and nature" as part of Indian heritage. All this in the first paragraph.
After more proud embellishers, the 38-page document gets to its mandate: India's Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDCs), or its national pledge ahead of global climate talks in Paris in late December. At least 196 countries including the US, EU, Brazil and China have submitted country-specific targets to reduce emissions by 2030, based on which the UN will reach a deal on tackling global warming.
India is the world's third largest greenhouse gas emitter after the US and China, and its green commitment is encouraging. Its promise to source 40 per cent of its electricity from non-fossil sources by 2030 includes 175 GW of renewables, the largest target in the world today.
India also pledged to cut 30-35 per cent of its carbon intensity (the ratio of carbon dioxide emissions to the size of the economy) by the same year. It will increase forest cover, and invest in development of vulnerable sectors like agriculture, water resources and disaster management. International climate change watchers have praised India's INDC for being superior to many other countries, even though it only contributed to 4 per cent of historical emissions. They are not legally binding, but the sustainability language and low carbon targets show a major leap in India's recent willingness to act against climate change.
The domestic strategies to meet the targets, however, tell a more complex story. Even as India talks of low-emissions plans, it continues high-emission growth, and is unlikely to stop soon. Whether or not technological solutions and renewables achieve total emission cuts in the long run, without a core shift in approach, India will be chasing a moving goal.
Growth will have come, but at serious social and ecological costs.
A Matter of Energy
Energy and its use lie at the heart of the climate dilemma. India's growth ambitions — provide electricity to more than 50 per cent Indians (45 per cent rural) who have no access, build roads, infrastructure, improve GDP — require energy-intensive processes like steel and automobile production, highway expansion, and resource mining.
"India's message in all global climate talks since 1992 was, 'it's our turn to grow now'," explains Arjuna Srinidhi, climate fellow in the Centre for Science and Environment. For decades, India maintained that the fairest approach to climate solutions would be to allow developing countries to consume as much energy as the rich ones did during their own industrial revolutions.
There has been a thaw in this hardline position. Former climate negotiator Mukul Sanwal attributes it to geopolitics: India's higher global standing as an emerging economy and market, its stronger geopolitical friendship with the US, and its desire to be a permanent member of the UN Security Council.
India's new climate policy is also influenced by its high vulnerability to global warming. A 2007 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change scientific report found that India would face some of the worst impacts of climate change due to a long coastline, monsoon dependent economy, and the 363 million poor who are ill-equipped to adapt.
In 2008, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh created the country's first National Action Plan for Climate Change. The Solar Mission, Wind Mission and Mission for En- hanced Efficiency were part of this effort. In 2014, Prime Minister Narendra Modi added climate change as a portfolio to the ministry of environment and forests. He is partial to solar and wind energy, as he was as Gujarat's chief minister.
Submitted on October 2, it begins with the flowery touch of a winning school essay: "Human beings here [in India] have regarded fauna and flora as part of their family," and "represent a culture that calls the planet Mother Earth". It quotes from the Yajur Veda, references yoga, calls Mahatma Gandhi the earliest climate change philoso- pher, and claims the "harmonious co-existence of man and nature" as part of Indian heritage. All this in the first paragraph.
After more proud embellishers, the 38-page document gets to its mandate: India's Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDCs), or its national pledge ahead of global climate talks in Paris in late December. At least 196 countries including the US, EU, Brazil and China have submitted country-specific targets to reduce emissions by 2030, based on which the UN will reach a deal on tackling global warming.
India is the world's third largest greenhouse gas emitter after the US and China, and its green commitment is encouraging. Its promise to source 40 per cent of its electricity from non-fossil sources by 2030 includes 175 GW of renewables, the largest target in the world today.
India also pledged to cut 30-35 per cent of its carbon intensity (the ratio of carbon dioxide emissions to the size of the economy) by the same year. It will increase forest cover, and invest in development of vulnerable sectors like agriculture, water resources and disaster management. International climate change watchers have praised India's INDC for being superior to many other countries, even though it only contributed to 4 per cent of historical emissions. They are not legally binding, but the sustainability language and low carbon targets show a major leap in India's recent willingness to act against climate change.
The domestic strategies to meet the targets, however, tell a more complex story. Even as India talks of low-emissions plans, it continues high-emission growth, and is unlikely to stop soon. Whether or not technological solutions and renewables achieve total emission cuts in the long run, without a core shift in approach, India will be chasing a moving goal.
Growth will have come, but at serious social and ecological costs.
A Matter of Energy
Energy and its use lie at the heart of the climate dilemma. India's growth ambitions — provide electricity to more than 50 per cent Indians (45 per cent rural) who have no access, build roads, infrastructure, improve GDP — require energy-intensive processes like steel and automobile production, highway expansion, and resource mining.
"India's message in all global climate talks since 1992 was, 'it's our turn to grow now'," explains Arjuna Srinidhi, climate fellow in the Centre for Science and Environment. For decades, India maintained that the fairest approach to climate solutions would be to allow developing countries to consume as much energy as the rich ones did during their own industrial revolutions.
There has been a thaw in this hardline position. Former climate negotiator Mukul Sanwal attributes it to geopolitics: India's higher global standing as an emerging economy and market, its stronger geopolitical friendship with the US, and its desire to be a permanent member of the UN Security Council.
India's new climate policy is also influenced by its high vulnerability to global warming. A 2007 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change scientific report found that India would face some of the worst impacts of climate change due to a long coastline, monsoon dependent economy, and the 363 million poor who are ill-equipped to adapt.
In 2008, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh created the country's first National Action Plan for Climate Change. The Solar Mission, Wind Mission and Mission for En- hanced Efficiency were part of this effort. In 2014, Prime Minister Narendra Modi added climate change as a portfolio to the ministry of environment and forests. He is partial to solar and wind energy, as he was as Gujarat's chief minister.
The global problem of climate change is forcing a national conversation, but its core is still energy security. China has openly declared that as it develops, it will peak emissions by 2030, and then adopt carbon cuts. India has not bound itself to a cap or date on emissions, but domestic policies suggest it is on a similar trajectory.
"Climate change is the cumulative effect of national decisions on industry, environment, forests etc. And climate action is actually about a shift in the approach to national decision making," says Navroz Dubash, coordinator of the climate initiative in the Centre for Policy Research (CPR). "It's about a new way of looking at development." For India, this developmental shift is the primary climate challenge. Many of India's domestic policies are dissonant to its international climate goals.
It continues to expand emission-heavy coal-based power. About 70 per cent of India's electricity comes from coal. Government-run Coal India aims to double production to 1 billion tonnes a year by 2019, largely through polluting opencast mines. Coal and oil are taxed, but fossil fuels still get more than $40 billion in subsidy every year. Because over 80 per cent of coal is imported, power minister Piyush Goyal often says India cannot afford to cut down coal mining.
India plans to achieve the emissions drop then through renewable energy and energy efficiency. "The de- pendence on coal imports is the driver for India's strong interest in renewable energy," says Sanjay Vashist, director of Climate Action Network South Asia. "Our energy bill is high and I'm glad renewables are being seen as the most economical choice of the future."
Producing 175 GW of solar and wind by 2022 is a commendable but ambitious goal. Given the instability of solar and wind power in the grid, their high cost, the large imports of silicon (the raw material for solar installations), inadequate battery storage technology, land acquisition concerns, and effect of wind turbines on birds, there is a long way to go.
India's shift to non-fossil sources is contingent on international help: technology transfer and low- cost finance, including from the Green Climate Fund. A former climate negotiator is pessimistic. "Developed countries pledged $100 billion in 2010 to the green fund," he says. "But there is no money there." Even if it did have money, he says the vulnerable, least developed countries would get it, not India.
The India-US bilateral pact is more business opportunity than climate action. Nationally, it's unclear how much India will back non-fossil sources without global aid.
"Climate change is the cumulative effect of national decisions on industry, environment, forests etc. And climate action is actually about a shift in the approach to national decision making," says Navroz Dubash, coordinator of the climate initiative in the Centre for Policy Research (CPR). "It's about a new way of looking at development." For India, this developmental shift is the primary climate challenge. Many of India's domestic policies are dissonant to its international climate goals.
It continues to expand emission-heavy coal-based power. About 70 per cent of India's electricity comes from coal. Government-run Coal India aims to double production to 1 billion tonnes a year by 2019, largely through polluting opencast mines. Coal and oil are taxed, but fossil fuels still get more than $40 billion in subsidy every year. Because over 80 per cent of coal is imported, power minister Piyush Goyal often says India cannot afford to cut down coal mining.
India plans to achieve the emissions drop then through renewable energy and energy efficiency. "The de- pendence on coal imports is the driver for India's strong interest in renewable energy," says Sanjay Vashist, director of Climate Action Network South Asia. "Our energy bill is high and I'm glad renewables are being seen as the most economical choice of the future."
Producing 175 GW of solar and wind by 2022 is a commendable but ambitious goal. Given the instability of solar and wind power in the grid, their high cost, the large imports of silicon (the raw material for solar installations), inadequate battery storage technology, land acquisition concerns, and effect of wind turbines on birds, there is a long way to go.
India's shift to non-fossil sources is contingent on international help: technology transfer and low- cost finance, including from the Green Climate Fund. A former climate negotiator is pessimistic. "Developed countries pledged $100 billion in 2010 to the green fund," he says. "But there is no money there." Even if it did have money, he says the vulnerable, least developed countries would get it, not India.
The India-US bilateral pact is more business opportunity than climate action. Nationally, it's unclear how much India will back non-fossil sources without global aid.
Meanwhile, India pledges energy efficiency in its existing sources of power. The Bureau of Energy Efficiency (BEE) is one of the strongest institutional climate action groups. It introduced a star-rating scheme for air conditioners and refrigerators, and efficiency standards for 478 plants in eight energy-heavy industrial sectors. "We strike a balance between regulatory and market-based mechanisms to cut emissions," says Ajay Mathur, the outgoing director general of BEE who will take over Delhi-based climate think-tank TERI by the end of October.
But efficiency has limits. More growth, even if efficient, has often meant more usage. "Your SUV may consume 20 per cent less diesel than it used to, but if the city metro is bad or is too crowded, you'll use your car twice as much. Similarly, if a manufacturer has money to spare, it's more likely he'll use it to expand more than invest in carbon ef? ciency," says Mathur.
The INDCs also promise to create "carbon sinks" by increasing forest cover by 2030. Domestic forest policies are in stark contrast with this target. In the past five years, India has been diluting green laws. Environmental lawyer Ritwick Dutta finds only one mention of climate change in a recent high-level committee report reviewing India's green laws: in the full name of the environment ministry.
The Centre — between the tribal affairs, environment, coal and power ministries — has been allowing deforestation, one of the biggest causes for greenhouse emissions. In September, the environment ministry issued a policy to divert "degraded forests" for other uses. Meanwhile, reforestation has been about plantations and no biodiversity; largely incompetent.
Little Action So Far
Globally, India argues about equity, asking developed countries to consume less energy so that emerging nations can have a greater share of the atmosphere. D Raghunandan, president of the All India's People's Science Network, says the same equity argument does not apply at home.
India's low per capita emissions of 1.6 tonnes of carbon per person are in large part due to the huge internal inequalities in the use of energy. Around 95,000 MW of new largely coal-based power capac- ity has been added from 2001 to 2011, but in the same decade, the number of rural households without power barely changed from 75 million.
The benefits of adding capacity accrued largely to the existing, affluent consumers.
Those leading low-carbon lives — public transport, cycles, few appliances — are also the ones facing the effects of high-emission growth — pollution, displacement, and loss of health. "Right now, we are adopting policies that might reduce carbon emissions but won't have any other benefits," says Raghunandan.
What is needed then, is an integrated approach to development that interlinks sectors. This will need a mindset change. "For greater impact, we need to reach even deeper," says CPR's Dubash. The INDCs briefly link global targets to national policies on pollution, water resources, urbanisation and public transport. These are key.
"Much of our infrastructure and manufacturing capability is yet to be built. We shouldn't be locked into an energy-intensive and resource-intensive path." The philosophies of equity and sustainability must be mainstreamed in all policies.