Weather Prediction in the Country
The Earth System Science Organisation (ESSO)-India Meteorological Department (IMD), New Delhi which is the national agency for issuing long range forecast for the country had predicted that the monsoon seasonal rainfall is likely to be 93% of the Long Period Average (LPA) with a model error of ± 5%. The LPA of the season rainfall over the country as a whole for the period 1951-2000 is 89 cm.
The Minister of State for Ministry of Science and Technology and Earth Sciences Shri Y. S. Chowdary giving this information in written reply in Lok Sabha today said that this is the first stage of forecast issued on 22nd April, 2015. He said the five (5) category probability forecasts given by the IMD for June to September rainfall over the country are as below:
Category | Rainfall Range (% of LPA) | Forecast Probability (%) | Climatological Probability (%) |
Deficient | < 90 | 33 | 16 |
Below Normal | 90 - 96 | 35 | 17 |
Normal | 96 -104 | 28 | 33 |
Above Normal | 104 -110 | 3 | 16 |
Excess | > 110 | 1 | 17 |
Seasonal forecasts for the southwest monsoon season (June – September) rainfall are issued in two stages by the IMD. The first stage forecast is issued in April and the second stage forecast is issued in June. Along with the update forecast, separate forecasts for the month (July and August) rainfall over the country as a whole and seasonal (June-September) rainfall over the four geographical regions of India will also be issued by the ESSO-IMD in June, 2015.
The Minister said that various research Institutions in the country engaged in forecast/ research on monsoon as given below.
Sl. No. | Institution |
1 | Earth System Science Organisation (ESSO)-India Meteorological Department(IMD), New Delhi |
2 | ESSO-Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune |
3 | ESSO-National centre of Medium Range Weather Forecasting(NCMRWF) ,NOIDA |
4 | Indian Space Research Organisation-Space Applications Centre, Ahmedabad |
5 | Council of Scientific and Industrial Research-FOURTH PARADIGM INSTITUTE, BENGALURU |
6 | Indian Institute of Technology, Bhubaneswar |
7 | Indian Institute of Technology, Kharagpur |
8 | Indian Institute of Technology, Gandhi Nagar |
9 | Indian Institute of Technology, Bombay |
10 | Indian Institute of Technology, New Delhi |
11 | Indian Institute of Science, Bangalore |
12 | Andhra University |
13 | Cochin University |
14 | University of Pune |
15 | Centre for Disaster Mitigation, Jain University, Bangalore |
16 | Center for Development of Advanced Computing, Pune |
17 | Skymet weather wise |
Shri Chowdary also informed the House that forecasts made by some of these organizations are as follows:
Sl No. | Institution | Forecast for the 2015 southwest monsoon season rainfall over the country as whole (% of Long Period Average) |
1 | Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune | 91% ± 5% |
2 | Space Applications Centre, Ahmedabad | 100% |
3 | Indian Institute of Technology, Bhubaneswar | 98% |
4 | Centre for Disaster Mitigation, Jain University, Bangalore | 113% ± 5% |
5 | Center for Development of Advanced Computing, Pune | 84% |
6 | Skymet weather wise | 102% |
The Minister said through Indo-US collaboration, a “Monsoon Desk” has been set up for working jointly for improving seasonal forecast of Indian monsoon rainfall. Through this forum, Indian and US Scientists are exchanging their ideas and sharing their expertise. This effort has led to appreciable improvements in the efficiency of models in making better and better forecasts, he added.